Tariffs & Trade Policy

The challenge

What's the Challenge?

Since January 2025 the Trump administration has used tariffs more aggressively than any U.S. government in nearly a century: broad-based tariffs on most imports, sharply higher tariffs on China, targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and other sectors, and the threat of new tariffs as a negotiating tool with allies like Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Supporters argue tariffs are needed to revive American manufacturing, reduce dependence on China, and force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms. Critics argue tariffs are taxes paid largely by U.S. importers and consumers, raise costs across the supply chain, invite retaliation, and have not historically restored lost manufacturing jobs. Court challenges to the administration's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs are ongoing. Americans broadly agree trade should be fair and that manufacturing matters—but disagree sharply on whether tariffs are the right tool.

Where we agree

Where Most Americans Agree

Fair trade matters—agreements should be honored and enforced
China's industrial policy, IP theft, and market access barriers warrant a serious response
American manufacturing capability matters for national security and good jobs
Workers and communities hurt by past trade liberalization deserve real support
Supply chains for critical goods (medicines, semiconductors, defense) shouldn't be dangerously concentrated
Trade policy should consider impact on consumers, workers, and farmers—not just one constituency
Long-running trade deficits with strategic rivals deserve scrutiny
Sudden, unpredictable policy changes are hard on businesses and farmers

Source · Chicago Council on Global Affairs Surveys 2024-2025, Pew Research Center

Both sides, fairly

How each side argues it.

Understanding the full debate means reading what each side actually says, not the caricature of it.

Progressive

Progressive Perspective

Tariffs are largely paid by U.S. importers and passed on to consumers, acting as a regressive tax on working families
Targeting allies with tariffs damages relationships America needs to counter China
Decades of evidence shows tariffs alone don't revive manufacturing—investment, training, and industrial policy do
Farmers and exporters bear the cost of retaliation while bailouts paper over the harm
Using emergency powers to set tariff policy bypasses Congress's constitutional authority over trade
Workers deserve adjustment assistance, training, and worker-power policies—not just tariff walls

Conservative

Conservative Perspective

Decades of free trade hollowed out American manufacturing and devastated working-class communities
China's mercantilist practices require leverage, not lectures—tariffs are leverage
Tariff threats have already produced new trade concessions and onshoring announcements
National security depends on producing essential goods domestically
The cost of cheap imports has been paid by American workers for forty years; rebalancing has trade-offs but is overdue
America has the largest consumer market in the world and should use that leverage in negotiations

The evidence

Evidence-Based Facts

№ 01
Economic studies of the 2018-2019 tariffs found the cost was paid largely by U.S. importers and consumers, with limited evidence of foreign exporters absorbing the increase
Source · Peer-reviewed research summarized by the National Bureau of Economic Research
№ 02
The Tax Foundation estimates that the 2025 tariff measures, if sustained, would reduce U.S. GDP by roughly 0.8% and household after-tax income by about $1,200 on average
Source · Tax Foundation tariff tracker
№ 03
The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed from its peak but remains large; manufacturing employment has been roughly flat-to-slightly-down since 2019
Source · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics
№ 04
Federal court challenges to the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for broad tariffs are pending; lower court rulings have been mixed
Source · Congressional Research Service
№ 05
The federal government provided multi-billion-dollar payments to farmers harmed by retaliatory tariffs during the 2018-2019 trade war
Source · USDA, GAO reports

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Honest questions

Questions for Thoughtful Debate

№ 01
Can tariffs actually rebuild U.S. manufacturing, or do they mainly raise prices for consumers?
№ 02
Should Congress reclaim its constitutional authority over trade, or are emergency tariff powers appropriate?
№ 03
How should the U.S. respond to China's industrial policy without harming American workers and farmers?
№ 04
What's the right balance between protecting strategic industries and avoiding broad consumer price increases?
№ 05
Are bilateral tariff deals more effective than multilateral trade agreements?
№ 06
How should the government help workers and communities hit by either trade or trade restrictions?